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We do not have two distinct chosen peoples. We do not have Israel and the ‘Church’. The promise in Isaiah 49:15-16 seems clear:
3 And he said to me, “You are my servant, Israel, in whom I will be glorified.” 11 And I will make all my mountains a road, and my highways shall be raised up. 12 Behold, these shall come from afar, and behold, these from the north and from the west,and these from the land of Syene.” 13 Sing for joy, O heavens, and exult, O earth; break forth, O mountains, into singing! For the Lord has comforted his people and will have compassion on his afflicted.14 But Zion said, “The Lord has forsaken me; my Lord has forgotten me.” 15 “Can a woman forget her nursing child, that she should have no compassion on the son of her womb? Even these may forget, yet I will not forget you. 16 Behold, I have engraved you on the palms of my hands; your walls are continually before me.
Isaiah 49:3,11-16 ESV
Dispensationalists claim that God had a plan for His people Israel, but they rejected it, so he put them aside for a time and created Christianity instead. He’ll then return for Jewish Israel at a later date once Christians are taken away.
On the other hand, Replacement theologians claim that God replaced Israel with the Christian Church. God had a plan for Jewish Israel, but it didn’t work out, so now its just Christians who are Israel.
But a better interpretation I believe, is that God never forgot either house of His people, Israel. He gave judgement to the House of Israel which He then redeemed through a preserved House of Judah, and He then gave judgement to Judah which He will then redeem once they accept Christ as their Messiah. This is the idea of staggered judgements on the 2 houses. Read Romans 11:25-32 for more clarity from Paul:
25 Lest you be wise in your own sight, I do not want you to be unaware of this mystery, brothers: a partial hardening has come upon Israel, until the fullness of the Gentiles has come in. 26 And in this way all Israel will be saved, as it is written, “The Deliverer will come from Zion, he will banish ungodliness from Jacob”; 27 “and this will be my covenant with them when I take away their sins.” 28 As regards the gospel, they are enemies for your sake. But as regards election, they are beloved for the sake of their forefathers. 29 For the gifts and the calling of God are irrevocable. 30 For just as you were at one time disobedient to God but now have received mercy because of their disobedience, 31 so they too have now been disobedient in order that by the mercy shown to you they also may now receive mercy. 32 For God has consigned all to disobedience, that he may have mercy on all.
Romans 11:25-32 ESV
Each house had a role to play, but both houses are Israel, being of one body, one bride, one ekklesia, or qahal, or church, and having one head who is Christ. There is not two bodies of God’s elect, being a gentile church and a nation state Israel. There is one Israel under Christ, and it includes members of the House of Judah and the House of Israel.
12 For just as the body is one and has many members, and all the members of the body, though many, are one body, so it is with Christ. 13 For in one Spirit we were all baptized into one body—Jews or Greeks, slaves or free—and all were made to drink of one Spirit.
1 Corinthians 12:12-13 ESV
6 This mystery is that the Gentiles are fellow heirs, members of the same body, and partakers of the promise in Christ Jesus through the gospel.
Ephesians 3:6,21 ESV
16 And I have other sheep that are not of this fold. I must bring them also, and they will listen to my voice. So there will be one flock, one shepherd.
John 10:16 ESV
18 And he is the head of the body, the church. He is the beginning, the firstborn from the dead, that in everything he might be preeminent. 21 And you, who once were alienated and hostile in mind, doing evil deeds, 22 he has now reconciled in his body of flesh by his death, in order to present you holy and blameless and above reproach before him, 24 Now I rejoice in my sufferings for your sake, and in my flesh I am filling up what is lacking in Christ’s afflictions for the sake of his body, that is, the church,
Colossians 1:18,21-22,24 ESV
23 For the husband is the head of the wife even as Christ is the head of the church, his body, and is himself its Savior.
Ephesians 5:23 ESV
11 And the children of Judah and the children of Israel shall be gathered together, and they shall appoint for themselves one head. And they shall go up from the land, for great shall be the day of Jezreel.
Hosea 1:11 ESV
9 But you are a chosen race, a royal priesthood, a holy nation, a people for his own possession, that you may proclaim the excellencies of him who called you out of darkness into his marvelous light. 10 Once you were not a people, but now you are God’s people; once you had not received mercy, but now you have received mercy.
1 Peter 2:9-10 ESV
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